As 2025 approaches, international institutions have tempered their expectations for Mexico’s medium-term economic performance. In recent end-of-year updates, both the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised their growth forecasts for Mexico through 2026, citing persistent structural challenges despite stable macroeconomic fundamentals.
The OECD projects that Mexico’s GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2024, slowing to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. The IMF offers a slightly more optimistic view, forecasting a 2.4% growth rate in 2026. These figures mark a notable deceleration from the estimated 3.1% expansion recorded in 2023. While the projections reflect cautious optimism amid global uncertainty, they also highlight enduring weaknesses in productivity, investment, and fiscal capacity.
Both institutions point to low levels of private and public investment as key constraints on long-term growth. Productivity remains subdued, particularly in sectors dominated by informal employment or limited technological adoption. Despite moderate public debt levels, Mexico’s fiscal space is constrained by chronically low tax revenues, limiting the government’s ability to stimulate growth through infrastructure or social investment.
Without deeper reforms, modest growth may be the ceiling rather than the floor.
The forecasts assume continued adherence to fiscal discipline and monetary stability—conditions that have underpinned Mexico’s macroeconomic resilience in recent years. However, they also flag risks stemming from global financial volatility and domestic policy uncertainty. With a presidential transition scheduled for mid-2024, questions about policy continuity and regulatory clarity may weigh on investor sentiment.
One area of potential upside is nearshoring—the relocation of manufacturing supply chains closer to North American markets. Both the OECD and IMF acknowledge this as a possible driver of higher-than-expected growth, contingent on improvements in infrastructure, legal certainty, and administrative efficiency. Yet without targeted reforms to enhance competitiveness and reduce bureaucratic friction, nearshoring may remain an unrealized opportunity.
Some analysts argue that these projections may underestimate the dynamism of Mexico’s informal economy or overlook regional disparities that could influence aggregate performance. Others suggest that accelerated regulatory reform or infrastructure investment could unlock stronger growth than currently forecasted. Nonetheless, the consensus among international observers remains cautious.
The subdued outlook reinforces calls for institutional reform aimed at improving labor productivity, enhancing public investment efficiency, and broadening the tax base. Such measures would not only support higher potential growth but also strengthen resilience against external shocks. As Mexico navigates its political transition, the challenge will be to maintain macroeconomic stability while addressing long-standing structural impediments.
Whether the next administration can deliver on these fronts will shape Mexico’s economic trajectory well beyond 2026. For now, international institutions are signaling that without deeper reforms, modest growth may be the ceiling rather than the floor.
