Mexico began December with a grim tally: 225 homicides in the first five days of the month, averaging 45 killings per day. The figures, drawn from preliminary federal data, highlight the enduring challenge of violent crime across several regions despite years of security interventions.
The states with the highest number of killings—Guanajuato (41), Estado de México (20), Baja California (18), and Jalisco (17)—are all areas where organized criminal groups have long contested territory. These regions also tend to feature weak local governance and limited institutional capacity, making them vulnerable to cycles of violence.
Although national homicide rates have declined modestly since peaking in 2018–2019, they remain well above historical norms. The current levels are still significantly higher than those recorded before 2007, when drug-related violence began escalating sharply. This persistence suggests that structural issues in law enforcement and the justice system continue to undermine public security.
Despite years of military deployment, homicide rates remain far above pre-2007 levels.
The federal government has responded by deploying more than 100,000 military personnel to support policing efforts. The National Guard, established in 2019 as a hybrid force intended to professionalize public security, has become a central pillar of this strategy. However, its effectiveness and accountability have been questioned by civil society groups and some analysts.
Officials argue that the overall trend is stabilizing and that violence is increasingly concentrated in specific hotspots rather than spread nationwide. They also point to social programs aimed at addressing root causes of crime as part of a longer-term solution. Yet the latest data suggest that these measures have yet to produce a significant shift in outcomes on the ground.
The continued high levels of violence come amid ongoing political debate over the militarization of public security. With general elections approaching in 2024, security remains one of the top concerns for voters. Whether current strategies can deliver meaningful reductions in violence—or whether deeper institutional reforms are needed—will likely remain central to the national conversation.
