One year into Plan México—the federal government’s flagship industrial strategy—the country finds itself at a crossroads. Recent announcements by General Motors and Pilgrim’s Pride, pledging a combined US$2.3 billion in new investments, have been heralded as signs of progress. Yet beneath these high-profile commitments lies a more sobering reality: national investment levels are retreating, not advancing, relative to the plan’s goals.
The federal government reports a national investment portfolio nearing US$293 billion, encompassing new, planned, and reactivated projects. Pilgrim’s Pride will invest US$1.3 billion between 2026 and 2030 to modernize its facilities across several states, while General Motors has committed US$1 billion over two years to upgrade its manufacturing operations. These projects are being framed as emblematic of Plan México’s success. However, the broader data tell a different story.
Gross fixed investment as a share of GDP fell from 24.8% in the third quarter of 2024 to just 22% a year later—moving further away from the plan’s target of surpassing 25% by 2026 and reaching 28% by 2030. According to INEGI, gross fixed investment declined 5.8% year-on-year in October 2025, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of contraction. Public investment dropped by over 20% through October, while private investment—which accounts for 90% of the total—fell nearly 5%.
High-profile investments cannot offset declining national trends without legal certainty and broader investor confidence.
Some of this decline was anticipated. The end of large-scale infrastructure projects from the previous administration and ongoing fiscal consolidation have constrained public spending. But the contraction in private investment is more troubling. Analysts from think tanks such as México, ¿cómo vamos? and IMCO argue that legal certainty and policy predictability are essential to reversing this trend. Without them, investor confidence may continue to erode.
The implications extend beyond macroeconomic indicators. Plan México’s success hinges on raising investment levels to support job creation, industrial upgrading, and deeper integration into global value chains. A failure to meet these benchmarks could undermine broader development goals, including the aim to position Mexico among the world’s ten largest economies and boost domestic content in strategic sectors.
Moreover, regional disparities persist. Investment remains concentrated in a handful of states, raising questions about whether Plan México can foster inclusive national development. While the federal portfolio aggregates impressive figures, it includes projects carried over from earlier administrations—some of which may not represent fresh capital inflows or evenly distributed benefits.
For now, the contrast between headline-grabbing announcements and declining aggregate indicators underscores a structural challenge: attracting capital at scale requires more than promotional fanfare. It demands institutional credibility, regulatory clarity, and sustained public-private coordination. Without these conditions, Plan México risks becoming an aspirational blueprint rather than a transformative engine.
