Mexico’s middle class has expanded to encompass more than half the population, according to a new report from the World Bank. The findings mark a significant shift in the country’s income distribution over the past two decades, driven by sustained poverty reduction, increased formal employment, and broader access to education and services.
Using an internationally comparable definition based on purchasing power parity, the World Bank classifies middle-class individuals as those earning between US$13 and US$70 per day. By this measure, Mexico’s middle class grew from 35% of the population in 2000 to over 55% by 2022. The report attributes this growth to structural changes in the labour market, including rising female participation and urbanisation.
The expansion reflects long-term policy efforts aimed at improving living standards and integrating more workers into the formal economy. Gains in educational attainment and access to basic services have also played a role. However, the report notes that regional disparities remain pronounced, with southern states lagging behind in income mobility and formal job creation.
Many households meet income thresholds but lack the protections that define a stable middle-class life.
The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reversed some of these gains. As economic activity contracted sharply in 2020, many households fell below middle-income thresholds. Yet Mexico’s recovery was relatively swift compared to other Latin American economies, allowing the middle class to rebound by 2022.
Despite this progress, the World Bank cautions that many middle-class households remain economically vulnerable. Limited access to social safety nets and persistent informality in employment leave them exposed to shocks such as job loss or health emergencies. While income levels may meet middle-class criteria, economic security is far from guaranteed.
“Many households meet income thresholds but lack the protections that define a stable middle-class life,” the report suggests.
Critics argue that income-based definitions may overstate actual well-being. They point out that public services and infrastructure have not kept pace with income growth, particularly in areas such as healthcare, transport, and housing. Moreover, informality continues to limit upward mobility for large segments of the population.
The findings arrive at a politically sensitive moment for Mexico. As the country undergoes a leadership transition following its 2024 elections, debates around fiscal reform, inequality, and labour formalisation are likely to intensify. The World Bank’s data may serve as both a benchmark of progress and a reminder of the challenges ahead.
