For the first time in recent history, Mexico’s middle class has become the country’s largest socioeconomic group, according to a new report from the World Bank. The analysis, which examines data from 2008 to 2022, shows that 36.3% of Mexicans were classified as middle class in 2022, narrowly surpassing the 35.8% living in poverty.
The World Bank defines middle-class status based on daily income levels adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), specifically between US$12 and US$63 per person. This method focuses on income thresholds rather than self-identification or consumption patterns. The shift marks a significant demographic milestone for a country long characterised by high poverty rates and economic inequality.
The report attributes this transition to a combination of macroeconomic stability, expanded access to education and healthcare, and targeted social programmes. These factors have gradually lifted millions of Mexicans into higher income brackets over the past decade and a half. Although the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reversed some of these gains, the middle class rebounded by 2022, regaining its upward trajectory.
Many middle-class households remain close to the poverty threshold and are vulnerable to economic shocks.
Still, the World Bank cautions that many households within this group remain economically fragile. A large share of Mexico’s workforce is employed informally, limiting access to social protections such as pensions and health insurance. As a result, even those who meet the income criteria for middle-class status may be vulnerable to economic shocks or health crises that could push them back into poverty.
“Many middle-class households remain close to the poverty threshold and are vulnerable to economic shocks,” the report notes.
The findings also underscore persistent disparities across regions. While urban centres have seen more robust growth in middle-class populations, rural and southern areas continue to lag behind. This uneven distribution reflects broader structural challenges in Mexico’s labour market and public service provision.
As Mexico approaches a political transition in 2024, the report may shape policy debates around welfare reform, labour formalisation, and fiscal policy. The expansion of the middle class could be seen as a sign of progress—but also as a reminder of how much remains to be done to ensure economic security is both broad-based and durable.
