Mexico’s solar energy industry is preparing for a sharp increase in costs, with panel module prices expected to rise by as much as 40% and final project prices by around 20% in the coming months. The Council of Professionals in Photovoltaic Energy (CPEF) has warned that a combination of international and domestic pressures is creating what it calls a ‘perfect storm’ for the sector.
At the center of the global shift is China’s decision to end subsidies for photovoltaic module manufacturing starting April 1, 2026. As the world’s dominant producer of solar panels, China’s move is expected to raise production costs globally. For Mexico, which relies heavily on imported solar technology, this change will likely translate into higher prices across the supply chain.
Currency dynamics are compounding the issue. A weakening US dollar, particularly against the Chinese yuan, is making imports more expensive. Since most solar equipment is priced in dollars, the exchange rate shift is pushing up acquisition costs for Mexican distributors and installers.
The sharpest increase will come in April. Maintaining current prices will be unsustainable.
Domestically, uncertainty surrounds potential tariffs on Asian imports, including aluminum—a key material for mounting structures and panel frames. If implemented, such measures could further inflate infrastructure costs for solar installations. While these tariffs remain under consideration and their scope is not yet defined, their possible impact is already being factored into industry forecasts.
According to Aldo Díaz, national president of CPEF, manufacturers and distributors have begun updating their price lists as inventories purchased under earlier conditions are depleted. ‘The sharpest increase will come in April. Maintaining current prices will be unsustainable,’ he said.
Current pricing reflects stock acquired before these macroeconomic shifts took hold. Once new shipments arrive under less favorable terms, installation costs are expected to rise significantly. This could delay return on investment timelines for households and businesses considering solar adoption.
In response, CPEF is urging consumers to act swiftly. The organization recommends finalizing solar projects before April to lock in lower prices and avoid costlier installations later in the year. The message frames the present moment as a strategic window for both energy planning and financial prudence.
The warning comes at a time when rooftop solar adoption in Mexico has been growing steadily despite limited federal incentives and regulatory ambiguity. Rising costs risk slowing this momentum just as more households and small businesses have begun investing in distributed generation.
Some industry observers note that not all impacts are guaranteed. The proposed tariffs may not materialize or could be applied selectively. Currency fluctuations could also reverse course if the dollar strengthens. Additionally, some firms may have hedged against volatility or diversified their supplier base to cushion against shocks.
Still, with multiple cost drivers converging ahead of April, many in the sector view the coming months as pivotal.
