A surge in domestic fuel production by Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, is reshaping the North American energy landscape. In 2025, Mexico’s imports of gasoline and diesel from the United States fell to their lowest level since 2008, according to company data. This decline is not merely cyclical—it reflects a structural shift driven by improved refinery utilization and new capacity coming online.
At the heart of this transformation is the Dos Bocas (Olmeca) refinery, which reached 77.5% of its installed capacity in December 2025—its highest level since opening nearly four years ago. The long-delayed ramp-up at Dos Bocas has finally begun to deliver results, contributing significantly to a broader increase in domestic fuel output. Meanwhile, Pemex’s Tula refinery has added a new coking unit that processes residual fuel oil into higher-value products, further boosting supply. This unit also handles feedstock from the Salamanca refinery, enhancing regional integration within Pemex’s refining system.
As a result, Pemex operated its refineries at their highest rates in a decade last year. The implications for US refiners are considerable. Mexico has historically been the largest foreign buyer of US-produced motor fuels. With Mexican demand waning, inventories in the United States have swelled: gasoline stocks are now at their highest levels since the pandemic, while diesel inventories have reached a two-year high. Major US refiners such as Valero, Marathon, and ExxonMobil are facing a narrowing outlet for their exports.
Mexico’s refining revival is squeezing US fuel exports and reshaping North American supply chains.
The shift also reverberates upstream. Many US refineries are configured to process heavy crude, much of it sourced from Mexico and Canada. As Mexico consumes more of its own production domestically, less heavy crude may be available for export northward. Industry observers note that this could tighten feedstock availability for complex US refineries, particularly as alternative sources such as Venezuela remain constrained by geopolitical and logistical factors.
Pemex plans to maintain elevated refining output through the Easter travel season, traditionally a period of high domestic fuel demand. However, sustaining these levels poses risks. The company’s refining infrastructure remains vulnerable to breakdowns under strain; fires were reported recently at both Dos Bocas and Salina Cruz. While new units like Tula’s coker improve efficiency, much of Pemex’s refining system still relies on aging equipment.
Despite the current momentum, questions linger over the long-term viability of Pemex’s refining strategy. Global energy trends increasingly favor decarbonization and fuel diversification, raising doubts about sustained investment in traditional refining capacity. Moreover, Mexico may still need to import fuel during peak demand periods or if operational setbacks occur. For now, though, the data points to a clear trend: Mexico is becoming less dependent on US fuel imports, with consequences rippling across regional supply chains.
