Mexico’s economic outlook remains clouded by stagnation and declining private investment, according to a year-end assessment released by the Employers’ Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex). The influential business group, which represents over 36,000 companies nationwide, issued a critical review of the country’s 2025 economic performance, warning that structural deficiencies continue to undermine growth and investor confidence.
The report points to gross domestic product (GDP) growth remaining below 2% in 2025, based on independent forecasts. Despite global trends favoring nearshoring and Mexico’s proximity to the United States, investment as a share of GDP has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Coparmex attributes this underperformance to persistent policy uncertainty, weak institutional frameworks, and a lack of structural reforms needed to foster long-term competitiveness.
“Without legal certainty and stronger institutions, Mexico will struggle to attract the capital needed for sustained development,” the group stated. It emphasized that regulatory unpredictability and inefficiencies in the public sector have eroded investor trust, particularly in sectors requiring long-term commitments such as infrastructure and energy.
Without legal certainty and stronger institutions, Mexico will struggle to attract the capital needed for sustained development.
The review also criticizes the limited progress in formal job creation and innovation. Productivity gains remain modest, with few incentives for businesses to transition from informal operations or invest in technological upgrades. According to Coparmex, this stagnation reflects deeper issues in labor policy and education that have not been adequately addressed.
While the federal government maintains that macroeconomic fundamentals are sound—highlighting low inflation and stable public debt—Coparmex argues that these indicators mask underlying vulnerabilities. The group warns that optimism surrounding nearshoring may be misplaced if structural barriers are not resolved. It calls for renewed focus on legal certainty, improved infrastructure investment, and more effective public-private collaboration.
Some sectors have shown resilience. Manufacturing linked to the U.S. market continues to perform relatively well, benefiting from trade integration and supply chain shifts. Public investment in transport and energy infrastructure has also increased. However, Coparmex questions the efficiency and transparency of these projects, suggesting they have not translated into broader economic dynamism.
The divergence between Coparmex’s assessment and more optimistic official narratives underscores a growing debate over Mexico’s medium-term trajectory. While headline stability persists, the business community remains concerned about the country’s ability to convert macroeconomic order into sustainable growth.
