Mexico’s consumer confidence index fell sharply in November, reaching its lowest level since December 2021. According to data from the national statistics agency INEGI, the index dropped to 45.2 points, down 1.6 points from October. This marks the steepest monthly decline in nearly three years.
The downturn in sentiment comes despite the mid-November ‘Buen Fin’ shopping event, which typically boosts short-term optimism among consumers. Instead, all five components of the index declined, including expectations for household finances and the broader economy over the next 12 months.
The data suggest that persistent inflation and concerns over purchasing power are weighing heavily on consumer outlooks. Annual inflation stood at 4.32% in November—well above the central bank’s target of 3%—and has remained a source of pressure on household budgets, particularly for lower-income groups. While formal employment and remittance inflows remain relatively stable, they have not been sufficient to offset growing unease about future economic conditions.
The divergence between stable incomes and falling sentiment suggests inflation is shaping perceptions more than earnings.
The timing of the decline may also reflect broader uncertainty ahead of Mexico’s general elections in 2024. Political transitions often introduce caution into household spending decisions, especially when paired with global economic volatility and domestic inflationary trends.
Despite weaker sentiment, some indicators suggest that actual consumption may not yet be contracting. Sales during Buen Fin showed nominal growth, and remittances from abroad continue to support household income. Low unemployment levels have also helped maintain a degree of economic stability.
Still, if confidence remains subdued, sectors reliant on discretionary spending—such as retail and services—could face headwinds in the coming months. The divergence between relatively stable income indicators and falling sentiment underscores how inflation and political uncertainty may be shaping perceptions more than actual earnings.
Consumer sentiment is inherently volatile and could recover if inflation moderates or political clarity improves after the elections. For now, however, the latest figures point to a cautious mood among Mexican households as they navigate an uncertain economic landscape.
